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Will tariffs affect your holiday spending this year?

See how tariffs and inflation could raise holiday costs.

By Ben Bakkum, CFA, CFP®

Sr. Investment Strategist, Betterment |

Published Nov. 06, 2025

Will tariffs affect your holiday spending this year? Nov 6, 2025 12:18:32 PM See how tariffs and inflation could raise holiday costs. Key takeaways: Tariffs remain high, placing upward price pressure on imported goods this season. Inflation holds near 3%, though goods prices have accelerated. Holiday staples like turkey and sugar cost more, driven by tariffs and limited supply. Imported gifts and décor face 10–20% hikes, with fewer options on store shelves. Plan ahead and automate savings to stay on track despite short-term price swings. When the Trump administration raised tariffs in April, investors and consumers worried higher import costs could push prices up. Since then, officials have paused some increases, struck deals, and walked back threats, averting the worst of what seemed possible last spring. Tariff rates overall remain much higher today than they were last year; however, and have the potential to affect the costs of this year’s holiday season. A quick look at inflation—and what’s behind the numbers The good news: The trade war hasn’t caused a sharp spike in overall inflation. Prices are rising about 3% a year, which is still above normal—but much lower than the surge that followed the pandemic (as demonstrated in the chart below). In underlying data, we've seen the impact show up most in goods inflation, as opposed to services, where price increases have continued to moderate in the last several years. Where tariffs may show up this holiday season As the holidays approach, some categories are climbing faster than others. For instance, Thanksgiving turkeys are expected to be about 40% more expensive this November, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That increase isn’t only about tariffs, as outbreaks of avian flu continue to shrink the supply of birds, yet import taxes on equipment and packaging are also adding to costs for farms and retailers. Seafood lovers may notice changes too. Tariffs on shrimp and salmon are pushing up prices for grocers and restaurants, while fruit and vegetables, from Mexico and South America, face new inspection and shipping fees that could raise shelf prices. When it comes to beverages, tariffs on European wine and spirits are upping the purchase price, so you might want to consider toasting with U.S.-based options this year. Bakers might also feel a pinch this season. Roughly 90% of the sugar used by U.S. manufacturers comes from abroad, and prices have climbed about 30%, according to the Organic Trade Association. New limits on organic sugar imports—and a 50% tariff on Brazil, which provides nearly 40% of America’s organic supply—are driving costs even higher. With cocoa prices up sharply, driven by both crop shortfalls and new tariffs on West African imports, chocolate desserts could also be more costly. It’s a tough year to bake on a budget. When it comes to holiday gift giving, The New York Times’ Wirecutter found that “price changes are more apparent among individual products than across categories.” One example: The editors highlight that the Lenovo IdeaPad Flex 5i Chromebook Plus, held steady at $500 from October 2023 until April 2025, when it jumped to $600. Electronics typically get cheaper over time, so that price increase shows how tariffs and supply challenges can ripple through the market. Other imported goods—like toys, apparel, and holiday décor—could see modest price increases too. Shoppers ready to deck the halls might pause at the new price increases. Roughly 87% of U.S. Christmas decorations come from China, where tariffs are impacting both higher prices and tighter supply. Retailers expect 10–20% price increases on artificial trees, while some brands are planning to ship fewer trees overall. Even with a 90-day tariff pause, most orders were placed months ago, meaning shoppers will see fewer options on shelves. Meanwhile, books, digital services, and U.S.-made items are expected to stay about the same. How to manage your holiday budget without stress Even with prices up in some areas, a few smart moves can help you stay in control—and even come out ahead. The goal isn’t to cut back on what matters, but to plan with intention. Start early. Shopping before peak demand gives you more choice and less pressure. It’s also easier to compare prices, make use of cash-back offers, and spread out your spending rather than watching it all hit your card statement at once. Automate your savings. Set up recurring deposits so your holiday fund grows automatically in the background. Betterment customers using recurring deposits earned nearly 3% higher annual returns than those who didn’t. Stick to your plan. Separate what you’ll spend this season from your long-term goals. Having that clarity helps you enjoy the holidays guilt-free, without hindering your broader financial plan. Bonus tip: After the holidays, keep your recurring deposit running. Turning a seasonal habit into a year-round routine is one of the easiest ways to stay consistent and grow your wealth over time. Based on Betterment’s internal calculations for the Core portfolio over 5 years. Users in the “auto-deposit on” groups earned nearly an additional 2.5% over the last year and 2% annualized over 10 years. See more in disclosures. The bigger picture: Tariffs come and go, but your plan should endure Tariffs and trade shifts are part of the economic cycle. Prices may rise or fall from year to year, but for investors, discipline often matters more than timing. Even if this holiday season brings a few higher price tags, your financial plan doesn’t have to waver.

Key takeaways:

Tariffs remain high, placing upward price pressure on imported goods this season.
Inflation holds near 3%, though goods prices have accelerated.
Holiday staples like turkey and sugar cost more, driven by tariffs and limited supply.
Imported gifts and décor face 10–20% hikes, with fewer options on store shelves.
Plan ahead and automate savings to stay on track despite short-term price swings.

When the Trump administration raised tariffs in April, investors and consumers worried higher import costs could push prices up. Since then, officials have paused some increases, struck deals, and walked back threats, averting the worst of what seemed possible last spring.

Tariff rates overall remain much higher today than they were last year; however, and have the potential to affect the costs of this year’s holiday season.

A quick look at inflation—and what’s behind the numbers

The good news: The trade war hasn’t caused a sharp spike in overall inflation. Prices are rising about 3% a year, which is still above normal—but much lower than the surge that followed the pandemic (as demonstrated in the chart below). In underlying data, we've seen the impact show up most in goods inflation, as opposed to services, where price increases have continued to moderate in the last several years.

Where tariffs may show up this holiday season

As the holidays approach, some categories are climbing faster than others. For instance, Thanksgiving turkeys are expected to be about 40% more expensive this November, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That increase isn’t only about tariffs, as outbreaks of avian flu continue to shrink the supply of birds, yet import taxes on equipment and packaging are also adding to costs for farms and retailers.

Seafood lovers may notice changes too. Tariffs on shrimp and salmon are pushing up prices for grocers and restaurants, while fruit and vegetables, from Mexico and South America, face new inspection and shipping fees that could raise shelf prices. When it comes to beverages, tariffs on European wine and spirits are upping the purchase price, so you might want to consider toasting with U.S.-based options this year.

Bakers might also feel a pinch this season. Roughly 90% of the sugar used by U.S. manufacturers comes from abroad, and prices have climbed about 30%, according to the Organic Trade Association. New limits on organic sugar imports—and a 50% tariff on Brazil, which provides nearly 40% of America’s organic supply—are driving costs even higher. With cocoa prices up sharply, driven by both crop shortfalls and new tariffs on West African imports, chocolate desserts could also be more costly. It’s a tough year to bake on a budget.

When it comes to holiday gift giving, The New York Times’ Wirecutter found that “price changes are more apparent among individual products than across categories.” One example: The editors highlight that the Lenovo IdeaPad Flex 5i Chromebook Plus, held steady at $500 from October 2023 until April 2025, when it jumped to $600. Electronics typically get cheaper over time, so that price increase shows how tariffs and supply challenges can ripple through the market.

Other imported goods—like toys, apparel, and holiday décor—could see modest price increases too. Shoppers ready to deck the halls might pause at the new price increases. Roughly 87% of U.S. Christmas decorations come from China, where tariffs are impacting both higher prices and tighter supply. Retailers expect 10–20% price increases on artificial trees, while some brands are planning to ship fewer trees overall. Even with a 90-day tariff pause, most orders were placed months ago, meaning shoppers will see fewer options on shelves. Meanwhile, books, digital services, and U.S.-made items are expected to stay about the same.

How to manage your holiday budget without stress

Even with prices up in some areas, a few smart moves can help you stay in control—and even come out ahead. The goal isn’t to cut back on what matters, but to plan with intention.

Start early. Shopping before peak demand gives you more choice and less pressure. It’s also easier to compare prices, make use of cash-back offers, and spread out your spending rather than watching it all hit your card statement at once.
Automate your savings. Set up recurring deposits so your holiday fund grows automatically in the background. Betterment customers using recurring deposits earned nearly 3% higher annual returns than those who didn’t.
Stick to your plan. Separate what you’ll spend this season from your long-term goals. Having that clarity helps you enjoy the holidays guilt-free, without hindering your broader financial plan.
Bonus tip: After the holidays, keep your recurring deposit running. Turning a seasonal habit into a year-round routine is one of the easiest ways to stay consistent and grow your wealth over time.

Based on Betterment’s internal calculations for the Core portfolio over 5 years. Users in the “auto-deposit on” groups earned nearly an additional 2.5% over the last year and 2% annualized over 10 years. See more in disclosures.

The bigger picture: Tariffs come and go, but your plan should endure

Tariffs and trade shifts are part of the economic cycle. Prices may rise or fall from year to year, but for investors, discipline often matters more than timing. Even if this holiday season brings a few higher price tags, your financial plan doesn’t have to waver.